Thursday, November 08, 2007

idiots ...

(Nostalgic look back at petrol under £1/litre)

This on today's Moneyweek website

'The IEA reckons that oil could hit $159 a barrel by 2030, with demand of 120m barrels a day far outstripping supply of 116m barrels a day. And this is assuming we can get supply that high – it’s currently just 85m barrels a day, and if you believe in the Peak Oil theory, then it’s not going to go much higher than that.'

Perhaps the IEA should employ an economist? The idea that by 2030 production could reach anything like 116 million b/d is absolutely hilarious. Latest figures in the real world suggest a 7% pa fall from now on in oil production. Taking this to 2030 suggests a REAL oil production figure of 16,014,988 b/d, so there's a shortfall of just under 100 million barrels a day to find! Biofuels? Hardly. The EROEI is less than zero anyway for biofuels, so all biofuels will do is use up the existing oil that much faster. As will pumping harder, though that seems hardly an option now. All taps are fully open and stockpiles are still falling. And people still complain about £1 a litre petrol! It's hilarious. £10 a litre will seem cheap in ten year's time. They are like lambs to the slaughter.

In reality I suspect the retreat from oil will make all this speculation seem silly in 2030 - we'll wonder why we ever bothered.

And as for $159 a barrel by 2030? My guess is somewhere between $1000 a barrel tops and $0 if we're in a post oil economy. And yes, I will remind you of this forecast in 23 year's time!!

Figures for projected oil production assuming a 7% year on year fall in production capacity starting from a 2007 base of 85 million b/d are as follows -

2008 79,050,000
2009 73,516,500
2010 68,370,345
2011 63,584,420
2012 59,133,510
2013 54,994,164
2014 51,144,572
2015 47,564,451
2016 44,234,939
2017 41,138,493
2018 38,258,798
2019 35,580,682
2020 33,090,034
2021 30,773,731
2022 28,619,569
2023 26,616,199
2024 24,753,065
2025 23,020,350
2026 21,408,925
2027 19,910,300
2028 18,516,579
2029 17,220,418
2030 16,014,988
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